this is a genuinely really interesting post in that it's a rare acknowledgement that modern AAA live-game dev is totally unsustainable if you ever want to make anything else, ever again
to expand on this slightly; I think it's become pretty clear that the Fortnites and Genshin Impacts of the world have reached a pace of gigantic updates and self-remakes that is unsustainable without a dev team literally thousands strong, and that has now Set the Standard for pretty much everyone else who's competing in that space. AAA genres have always been dangerous to try and compete in, but the live service shooter/rpg is now basically a flaming money hole for anyone who isn't the sole winner. I feel like this is going to manifest as an acceleration on the crash-n-burn speed of new live games until people figure out a way to pull back on player demands, assuming that can even happen anymore.
The game business is traditionally one where you ship a product and sell units, and if you pick your spots correctly your product gets to almost stand alone on its own merit.
In live games, however, you are perpetually competing with every other live game in the same genre. The only way to succeed is to be not merely good but best in class. There’s room for only one looter shooter and it’s Destiny. There’s room for only one mmo and it’s wow.
Multiply that by ballooning budgets that require games to be succesful for years to recoup the initial investment and you have a recipe for a lot of bad risk and a lot of disappointment.
