Unity posted a FAQ on their official forums (source: https://forum.unity.com/threads/unity-plan-pricing-and-packaging-updates.1482750/) that basically amounts to confirming everyone's worst fears.
Q: How are you going to collect installs?
A: We leverage our own proprietary data model. We believe it gives an accurate determination of the number of times the runtime is distributed for a given project.
"Trust us bro"
Q: Is software made in unity going to be calling home to unity whenever it's ran, even for enterprice licenses?
A: We use a composite model for counting runtime installs that collects data from numerous sources. The Unity Runtime Fee will use data in compliance with GDPR and CCPA. The data being requested is aggregated and is being used for billing purposes.
Just an insane response. Unity is saying that they are basically guessing those numbers. They're also not answering the actual question of whether telemetry will be mandatory even for enterprise licensed runtimes.
Q: If a user reinstalls/redownloads a game / changes their hardware, will that count as multiple installs?
A: Yes. The creator will need to pay for all future installs. The reason is that Unity doesn’t receive end-player information, just aggregate data.
The problems with this are of course numerous.
Q: If a game that's made enough money to be over the threshold has a demo of the same game, do installs of the demo also induce a charge?
A: If it's early access, Beta, or a demo of the full game then yes. If you can get from the demo to a full game then yes. If it's not, like a single level that can't upgrade then no.
Unity is now basically dictating what type of demo or release strategy you can have, lest you be charged for installs of a demo.
Q: What's going to stop us being charged for pirated copies of our games?
A: We do already have fraud detection practices in our Ads technology which is solving a similar problem, so we will leverage that know-how as a starting point. We recognize that users will have concerns about this and we will make available a process for them to submit their concerns to our fraud compliance team.
"Trust us bro."
Q: When in the lifecycle of a game does tracking of lifetime installs begin? Do beta versions count towards the threshold?
A: Each initialization of an install counts towards the lifetime install.
Imagine an online multiplayer game that does a limited closed-beta network test to stress test their servers. Poof! That's potentially thousands of installs right there.
Q: Does this affect WebGL and streamed games?
A: Games on all platforms are eligible for the fee but will only incur costs if both the install and revenue thresholds are crossed. Installs - which involves initialization of the runtime on a client device - are counted on all platforms the same way (WebGL and streaming included).
Another nonanswer. How in the fuck are you tracking installs in the WebGL implementation?
Q: Are these fees going to apply to games which have been out for years already? If you met the threshold 2 years ago, you'll start owing for any installs monthly from January, no? (in theory). It says they'll use previous installs to determine threshold eligibility & then you'll start owing them for the new ones.
A: Yes, assuming the game is eligible and distributing the Unity Runtime then runtime fees will apply. We look at a game's lifetime installs to determine eligibility for the runtime fee. Then we bill the runtime fee based on all new installs that occur after January 1, 2024.
Utterly deranged, shameless, insane.
Aaand they're already doing a weak backpedal, now claiming that Unity will not count multiple installs and instead will only count initial installs (per device). Besides the fact that a mildly sophisticated attacker could still abuse this system to 'install-bomb' a developer (as hardware identifiers are easy to spoof), it doesn't exactly inspire confidence that earlier they were claiming they were going to be billing studios for runtime fees based on a "proprietary model" that couldn't distinguish between initial and later installs... which is to say, Unity is now promising to do something that a couple hours ago they were claiming was impossible.
Once again, fuck John Riccietielo, and I don't think anyone should take this bad spin job as meaningful. Unity is still planning to do something tremendously harmful to lots of studios, they're just now showing how ill-considered and lazy their stupid little plan was.