god i LOVE when "hm i wish this thing existed" actually exists. i was preparing to go through my own salmon run data to figure out the known occurrence rates1 and saw that stat.ink actually has this info publicly available! there are some easy ones to confirm right off the bat2
i'm slowly starting to work on some centralized salmon run docs that are not hosted on discord of all places, and having hard numbers to back stuff up is soooo useful ::)
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there's some pastebin that's referenced on inkipedia a ton, but it's all data from 2 and i don't know how much it translates over... at the very least there are 2 new known occurrences, so there has to be SOME difference
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for example, 20% chance of low or high tide, 60% chance of neutral tide (except on wahoo world). this even checks out on just a gut feeling of having played so many shifts, this is roughly what i would guess for likelihood