I've been thinking about the "why are people still on twitter" posts that go around, and also people periodically getting upset at Bluesky/Hive/Mastodon/etc., and it feels to me like at least part of it comes down to the unspoken desire to have one "Twitter replacement". And I don't think that's going to happen at all.
Twitter was honestly already breaking apart before Musk bought the site. They'd talked about it in investor calls - usage was declining over the course of the pandemic. There's a lot of reasons (Twitter sucks, everyone's aggressive, it feels bad to use), but it also feels like there's been a breaking apart of "publishing" and "consuming" where some people are moving away from "broadcast" networks entirely to sites where they mostly "consume" stuff.
Beyond that, to the extent that people are sticking around as "posters", it feels like we've hit a natural breaking point on the "everyone's on the same site" thing. Everything's breaking apart into various different smaller sites. I think some people are sticking around on twitter either hoping everyone else stays, or waiting for one site to emerge as the "new thing", but it's not gonna happen. People staying on twitter out of nostalgia for the "everyone's here" site aren't going to get that again; that era's over for now.
i think there are a lot of people, myself included, who do NOT want an "everyone's here" site. just a "my whole community is here" site. and they're waiting for a digital moses to deliver them there. which also is not going to happen.
